Winners at the start line.

Many years ago in the movie "Once upon a time in America" (Sergio Leone 1984) I heard the line " You can always tell the winners in the start line,....I would have bet everything on you" (To be honest I don´t know the exact words in English, in the Spanish version I watched the line was something like "Siempre se distingue a los ganadores en la línea de salida......Yo lo habría apostado todo por tí")

I have always wondered to what extent this is true. Are the winners in this crazy race of life really obvious from the start? Or are they only obvious under the light of hindsight, after the race is over?

Are some people really predisposed for great achievements while others are tied to mediocrity and bounded by a invisible wall of limitations (self-imposed or otherwise). How much is timing a factor: would Einstein have been a remarkable scientist today; would Queen Victoria have managed Lady Di better? Would Shackelton or Hillary have been explorers today? Would Churchill have been allowed to become Prime Minister in the politics of television?

Perhaps this questions are as old as they are rhetoric, but perhaps they apply not only to people but also to countries and companies. Often we find "gurus" who explain to us how great companies are so good at what they do, such great examples of efficiency and innovation, and they sound (to me), as if these success stories were obvious from the start, when the analysis, of course, is always done afterward, when they have succeed. One example we hear about all the time: Apple, and his great man "Steve Jobs". Were they obvious winners from the start, or where they simply "good" and had the wind on their backs, and great timing?.

I have struggled often about the question of whether I´m predisposed to achieve something great in my life (what "great"  means is, of course, another question) or limited from the start to mediocrity. Would anyone have bet everything on me on the start line?

Who knows? As always, I have many questions and very few and uncertain answers.