A few inspiring thoughts from Fooled By Ramdomnes.
I just finished the other great book by Nassim N.Taleb (unfortunately I read them in the wrong order), Fooled By Randomness, which became an international Best Seller when published in 2004. This book, although not exactly related to the financial markets, explains many of the false illusions that are at the origin of the turmoil we are suffering.
"This book is about luck disguised and perceived as non-luck (that is, skills) and, more generally, randomness disguised an perceived as non-randomnes (that is, determinism)."
"Past events will always look less random than they were (it is called the hindsight bias)": keeping this in mind, one can not avoid to be skeptical of most accounts and explanations of the past, even those by well-informed and and well-intended authors.
"Why don´t most journalists end up figuring out that they know much less than they think they know": we are all condemned, it seems, to be bombarded by opinionated and self-rightous journalists and writers who are experts in absolutely everything, from the world economy, to the war in Georgia, to the AIDS epidemic, to the problems of education, to the inner politics of every small town in Spain. How can they possibly be so smart?
"I believe that the principal asset I need to protect and cultivate is my deep-seated intellectual insecurity. My motto is, my principal activity is to tease those who take themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously." If only we could encounter more people with this same humility in all walks of life.
"Things are always obvious after the fact."
"The wise man listens to meaning: the fool only gets the noise."
"Remember that nobody accepts randomness in his own success, only his failure"
"Dress at your best in your execution day (shave carefully); try to leave an impression on the death squad by standing erect and proud.....The dignified attitude will make both defeat and victory feel equally heroic".
